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IHS Global Insight Launches Economic Outlook Index
Created with USA TODAY, Index Examines 11 Key Indicators for Growth
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LEXINGTON, MA (June 11, 2009) - IHS Global Insight, the world's leading company for economic and financial analysis and forecasting, today announces the launching of the Economic Outlook Index designed to track and forecast economic recovery and growth prospects using an index of 11 forward-looking leading economic and financial indicators.
Created jointly with USA TODAY, the Economic Outlook Index, will appear on line at www.economicoutlook.usatoday.com and in printed editions of the newspaper. The index and accompanying interactive graphic will be updated monthly.
The index predicts future real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Real GDP, the value of goods and services produced in the U.S., adjusted for inflation, is a key measure of economic activity and a major factor in determining whether the economy is in recession. The U.S. economy went into recession in the fourth quarter 2007.
To provide guidance in forecasting real GDP growth, IHS Global Insight designed a monthly, high frequency model that produces a weighted composite of 11 leading indicators which include: real Fed Funds rate, interest rate yield curve, corporate bond spread, hours worked, building permits, non-defense capital goods orders, money supply, stock prices, Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Export Orders Index, crude oil prices and light vehicle sales.
Unlike other indexes, the USA TODAY--IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index only includes those forward-looking indicators with a proven ability to predict future economic activity. As a group, the 11 indicators accurately forecast economic growth and are sensitive to signs of stress in the economy. The interactive graphic at www.economicoutlook.usatoday.com charts the forecasted values for real GDP growth several months into the future. The graphic also includes values back to 2000, allowing users to look back at nearly a decade of economic indicators.
IHS Global Insight Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh said: ""This is an exciting and innovative way of tracking the U.S. economy and, much more important, predicting when the long-awaited recovery is likely to begin."
IHS Global Insight is an IHS (NYSE: IHS) company.
Contacts:
Jim Dorsey
+1 781 301 9069
jim.dorsey@globalinsight.com
IHS Press Desk
+1 303 305 8021
press@ihs.com
About IHS Global Insight
IHS Global Insight (www.ihsglobalinsight.com), an IHS company, provides the most comprehensive economic and financial information available on countries, regions and industries, using a unique combination of expertise, models, data and software within a common analytical framework to support planning and decision-making. Through the world's first same-day analysis and risk assessment service, IHS Global Insight provides immediate insightful analysis of market conditions and key events around the world, covering economic, political, and operational factors. IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading global source of critical information and insight, dedicated to providing the most complete and trusted information and expertise. IHS product and service solutions span four areas of information that encompass the most important concerns facing global business today: Energy, Product Lifecycle, Security, and Environment supported by Macroeconomics. IHS employs approximately 3,800 people in 20 countries.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. Copyright © 2009 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
About USA TODAY
USA TODAY was founded in 1982 with a mission to serve as a forum for better understanding and unity to help make the USA truly one nation. Through its flagship newspaper and popular Web site, USA TODAY engages the national conversation and connects readers online through social media applications. USA TODAY, the nation's top-selling newspaper with a total average daily circulation of more than 2.1 million, and USATODAY.com, an award-winning newspaper Web site which launched in 1995, reach a combined 5.8 million readers daily. The USA TODAY news and information brand also includes: USA TODAY Education, USA TODAY LIVE, USA TODAY Mobile, Open Air magazine and USA TODAY Sports Weekly. USA TODAY is owned by Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE: GCI).
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