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Methodology
IHS Global Insight integrates national-level forecasts with local demographic, business, and economic conditions to estimate advertising expenditure by county. Through this approach, we leverage widely accepted national-level data from trusted industry sources and make full use of regionally specific information that influences local advertising behavior.
National Advertising Model
Our national advertising model comprises individual equations for each media type. These equations reflect the impact of economic factors: corporate profits, personal income, consumer spending, and other economic aggregates. The equations also take into account industry-specific variables: output (sales), employment, and profits by industry sector.
In addition to these economic drivers, we consider structural factors specific to each medium, such as trends in cable and satellite penetration. We capture seasonal and cyclical factors, including the U.S. federal election timetable, Summer/Winter Olympic Games schedule, and fourth-quarter Thanksgiving and Christmas run-ups. We also weigh the impact of major outside events (such as 9/11) when appropriate.
Regional Advertising Model
Our regional advertising model distributes national spending to metropolitan areas. We examine each industry's propensity to advertise, by medium, and then compare the results with the region's industrial makeup and that industry's performance as expressed by employment, output, and profits. We use three key classes of leading indicators—industry composition, overall economic growth, and demographics—to create estimates by media type.
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